LiveZilla Live Chat Software

Constellation, le dépôt institutionnel de l'Université du Québec à Chicoutimi

Effects of government policies and the Nowruz holidays on confirmed COVID-19 cases in Iran: An intervention time series analysis

Hadianfar Ali, Yousefi Razieh, Delavary Milad, Fakoor Vahid, Shakeri Mohammad T. et Lavallière Martin. (2021). Effects of government policies and the Nowruz holidays on confirmed COVID-19 cases in Iran: An intervention time series analysis. PLoS ONE, 16, (8), e0256516.

[img]
Prévisualisation
PDF - Version publiée
Disponible sous licence Creative Commons Attribution.

832kB

URL officielle: http://dx.doi.org/doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0256516

Résumé

Background : Public health policies with varying degrees of restriction have been imposed around the world to prevent the spread of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). In this study, we aimed to evaluate the effects of the implementation of government policies and the Nowruz holidays on the containment of the COVID-19 pandemic in Iran, using an intervention time series analysis.

Methods : Daily data on COVID-19 cases registered between February 19 and May 2, 2020 were collected from the World Health Organization (WHO)’s website. Using an intervention time series modeling, the effect of two government policies on the number of confirmed cases were evaluated, namely the closing of schools and universities, and the implementation of social distancing measures. Furthermore, the effect of the Nowruz holidays as a non-intervention factor for the spread of COVID-19 was also analyzed.

Results : The results showed that, after the implementation of the first intervention, i.e., the closing of universities and schools, no statistically significant change was found in the number of new confirmed cases. The Nowruz holidays was followed by a significant increase in new cases (1,872.20; 95% CI, 1,257.60 to 2,476.79; p<0.001)), while the implementation of social distancing measures was followed by a significant decrease in such cases (2,182.80; 95% CI, 1,556.56 to 2,809.04; p<0.001).

Conclusion : The Nowruz holidays and the implementation of social distancing measures in Iran were related to a significant increase and decrease in COVID-19 cases, respectively. These results highlight the necessity of measuring the effect of health and social interventions for their future implementations.

Type de document:Article publié dans une revue avec comité d'évaluation
Volume:16
Numéro:8
Pages:e0256516
Version évaluée par les pairs:Oui
Date:Août 2021
Sujets:Sciences de la santé
Sciences de la santé > Sciences médicales > Médecine préventive et communautaire
Département, module, service et unité de recherche:Départements et modules > Département des sciences de la santé > Programmes d'études en kinésiologie
Mots-clés:COVID-19, social distancing, Iran, time series analysis, virus testing, pandemics, autocorrelation, schools, distanciation sociale, analyse de séries temporelles, tests de virus, pandémies, autocorrélation, écoles
Déposé le:21 oct. 2021 18:29
Dernière modification:21 oct. 2021 18:29
Afficher les statistiques de telechargements

Éditer le document (administrateurs uniquement)

Creative Commons LicenseSauf indication contraire, les documents archivés dans Constellation sont rendus disponibles selon les termes de la licence Creative Commons "Paternité, pas d'utilisation commerciale, pas de modification" 2.5 Canada.

Bibliothèque Paul-Émile-Boulet, UQAC
555, boulevard de l'Université
Chicoutimi (Québec)  CANADA G7H 2B1
418 545-5011, poste 5630