Constellation, le dépôt institutionnel de l'Université du Québec à Chicoutimi

Revisiting hurricane track model for wind risk assessment

Snaiki Reda et Wu Teng. (2020). Revisiting hurricane track model for wind risk assessment. Structural Safety, 87, p. 102003.

[thumbnail of Revisiting Hurricane Track Model for Wind Risk Assessment.pdf]
PDF - Version acceptée
Disponible sous licence Creative Commons (CC-BY-NC-ND 2.5).


URL officielle:


Hurricane wind risk assessment has been significantly improved with the evolvement of synthesis methodologies from the single site probabilistic method to the hurricane track model (including five simulation components of genesis, translation, intensity, decay and boundary-layer wind). As first-step efforts towards advancing the data- driven hurricane track model, widely used by engineering community, to a physics-based framework for more accurate and reliable hurricane risk assessment, a new intensity model integrating important dynamics and thermodynamics inside the storms is developed. Furthermore, an extensive statistical analysis of hurricane trajectories is carried out to obtain an enhanced translation model and a height-resolving analytical wind model is utilized to acquire the vertical profiles of wind speed and direction between ground-surface and gradient levels. The other two simulation components (i.e., genesis and decay) of the hurricane track model are also revisited for the sake of completeness. Ten thousand years of full-track synthetic hurricanes are generated and compared with the HURDAT database at specific mileposts along the US East coast to validate the overall performance of the developed simulation framework (in terms of annual occurrence rate, intensity, translation speed and heading angle). Then, the New Jersey coastline is employed as a case study to compare the simulated hurricane wind speeds with ASCE 7–16 recommendations, to highlight the wind directionality effects on extreme wind speeds, and to investigate the joint distribution of hurricane wind speed and size.

Type de document:Article publié dans une revue avec comité d'évaluation
Pages:p. 102003
Version évaluée par les pairs:Oui
Date:Novembre 2020
Sujets:Sciences naturelles et génie
Sciences naturelles et génie > Génie
Sciences naturelles et génie > Sciences appliquées
Département, module, service et unité de recherche:Départements et modules > Département des sciences appliquées
Mots-clés:Hurricane track, intensity model, hurricane size, wind directionality, risk analysis, trace d'ouragan, modèle d'intensité, taille de l'ouragan, directionnalité du vent, analyse des risques
Déposé le:03 févr. 2021 19:18
Dernière modification:01 nov. 2022 04:00
Afficher les statistiques de telechargements

Éditer le document (administrateurs uniquement)

Creative Commons LicenseSauf indication contraire, les documents archivés dans Constellation sont rendus disponibles selon les termes de la licence Creative Commons "Paternité, pas d'utilisation commerciale, pas de modification" 2.5 Canada.

Bibliothèque Paul-Émile-Boulet, UQAC
555, boulevard de l'Université
Chicoutimi (Québec)  CANADA G7H 2B1
418 545-5011, poste 5630