Constellation, le dépôt institutionnel de l'Université du Québec à Chicoutimi

Résumé

Hurricanes and their cascading hazards have been responsible for widespread damage to life and property, and are the largest contributor to insured annual losses in coastal areas of the U.S.A. Such losses are expected to increase because of changing climate and growing coastal population density. An effective methodology to assess hurricane wind and surge hazard risks to coastal bridges under changing climate conditions is proposed. The influence of climate change scenarios on hurricane intensity and frequency is explored. A framework that couples the hurricane tracking model (consisting of genesis, track, and intensity) with a height-resolving analytical wind model and a newly developed machine learning-based surge model is used for risk assessment. The proposed methodology is applied to a coastal bridge to obtain its traffic closure rate resulting from the observed (historical) and future (projected) hurricane winds and storm surges, demonstrating the effects of changing climate on the civil infrastructure in a hurricane-prone region.