Constellation, le dépôt institutionnel de l'Université du Québec à Chicoutimi

Variability in frost occurrence under climate change and consequent risk of damage to trees of western Quebec, Canada

Marquis Benjamin, Bergeron Yves, Houle Daniel, Leduc Martin et Rossi Sergio. (2022). Variability in frost occurrence under climate change and consequent risk of damage to trees of western Quebec, Canada. Scientific Reports, 12, e7220.

[thumbnail of s41598-022-11105-y.pdf]
Prévisualisation
PDF - Version publiée
Disponible sous licence Creative Commons (CC-BY 2.5).

6MB

URL officielle: http://dx.doi.org/doi:10.1038/s41598-022-11105-y

Résumé

Climate change affects timings, frequency, and intensity of frost events in northern ecosystems. However, our understanding of the impacts that frost will have on growth and survival of plants is still limited. When projecting the occurrence of frost, the internal variability and the different underlying physical formulations are two major sources of uncertainty of climate models. We use 50 climate simulations produced by a single-initial large climate ensemble and five climate simulations produced by different pairs of global and regional climate models based on the concentration pathway (RCP 8.5) over a latitudinal transect covering the temperate and boreal ecosystems of western Quebec, Canada, during 1955–2099 to provide a first-order estimate of the relative importance of these two sources of uncertainty on the occurrence of frost, i.e. when air temperature is < 0 °C, and their potential damage to trees. The variation in the date of the last spring frost was larger by 21 days (from 46 to 25 days) for the 50 climate simulations compared to the 5 different pairs of climate models. When considering these two sources of uncertainty in an eco-physiological model simulating the timings of budbreak for trees of northern environment, results show that 20% of climate simulations expect that trees will be exposed to frost even in 2090. Thus, frost damage to trees remains likely under global warming.

Type de document:Article publié dans une revue avec comité d'évaluation
ISSN:2045-2322
Volume:12
Pages:e7220
Version évaluée par les pairs:Oui
Date:4 Mai 2022
Identifiant unique:10.1038/s41598-022-11105-y
Sujets:Sciences naturelles et génie > Sciences appliquées > Climatologie et météorologie
Sciences naturelles et génie > Sciences appliquées > Foresterie et sciences du bois
Sciences naturelles et génie > Sciences naturelles > Biologie et autres sciences connexes
Département, module, service et unité de recherche:Départements et modules > Département des sciences fondamentales
Unités de recherche > Centre de recherche sur la Boréalie (CREB)
Mots-clés:climate Change, trees, frost damage, physiology
Déposé le:02 juin 2023 13:26
Dernière modification:02 juin 2023 13:26
Afficher les statistiques de telechargements

Éditer le document (administrateurs uniquement)

Creative Commons LicenseSauf indication contraire, les documents archivés dans Constellation sont rendus disponibles selon les termes de la licence Creative Commons "Paternité, pas d'utilisation commerciale, pas de modification" 2.5 Canada.

Bibliothèque Paul-Émile-Boulet, UQAC
555, boulevard de l'Université
Chicoutimi (Québec)  CANADA G7H 2B1
418 545-5011, poste 5630