Marquis Benjamin, Bergeron Yves, Houle Daniel, Leduc Martin et Rossi Sergio. (2022). Variability in frost occurrence under climate change and consequent risk of damage to trees of western Quebec, Canada. Scientific Reports, 12, e7220.
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URL officielle: http://dx.doi.org/doi:10.1038/s41598-022-11105-y
Résumé
Climate change affects timings, frequency, and intensity of frost events in northern ecosystems. However, our understanding of the impacts that frost will have on growth and survival of plants is still limited. When projecting the occurrence of frost, the internal variability and the different underlying physical formulations are two major sources of uncertainty of climate models. We use 50 climate simulations produced by a single-initial large climate ensemble and five climate simulations produced by different pairs of global and regional climate models based on the concentration pathway (RCP 8.5) over a latitudinal transect covering the temperate and boreal ecosystems of western Quebec, Canada, during 1955–2099 to provide a first-order estimate of the relative importance of these two sources of uncertainty on the occurrence of frost, i.e. when air temperature is < 0 °C, and their potential damage to trees. The variation in the date of the last spring frost was larger by 21 days (from 46 to 25 days) for the 50 climate simulations compared to the 5 different pairs of climate models. When considering these two sources of uncertainty in an eco-physiological model simulating the timings of budbreak for trees of northern environment, results show that 20% of climate simulations expect that trees will be exposed to frost even in 2090. Thus, frost damage to trees remains likely under global warming.
Type de document: | Article publié dans une revue avec comité d'évaluation |
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ISSN: | 2045-2322 |
Volume: | 12 |
Pages: | e7220 |
Version évaluée par les pairs: | Oui |
Date: | 4 Mai 2022 |
Identifiant unique: | 10.1038/s41598-022-11105-y |
Sujets: | Sciences naturelles et génie > Sciences appliquées > Climatologie et météorologie Sciences naturelles et génie > Sciences appliquées > Foresterie et sciences du bois Sciences naturelles et génie > Sciences naturelles > Biologie et autres sciences connexes |
Département, module, service et unité de recherche: | Départements et modules > Département des sciences fondamentales Unités de recherche > Centre de recherche sur la Boréalie (CREB) |
Mots-clés: | climate Change, trees, frost damage, physiology |
Déposé le: | 02 juin 2023 13:26 |
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Dernière modification: | 02 juin 2023 13:26 |
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