Jain Pratiksha, Khare Siddhartha, Sylvain Jean-Daniel, Raymond Patricia et Rossi Sergio. (2021). Predicting the location of maple habitat under warming scenarios in two regions at the northern range in Canada. Forest Science, 67, (4), p. 446-456.
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URL officielle: http://dx.doi.org/doi:10.1093/forsci%2Ffxab012
Résumé
Acer saccharum and Acer rubrum, two main maple species in North America, will be affected by ongoing global warming. Several studies predict a southern limit contraction but limited northward expansion of maple distribution for the future. We aimed to understand the main drivers of current maple distribution to quantify potential changes to maple habitat in this context. We identified the local conditions of maple stands and assessed the potential changes under warming scenarios. We selected two regions in Quebec, Canada, at the northern distribution of the species and applied probability distribution function and principal component analysis to identify the factors explaining the occurrence of maple compared with other forest species, croplands, and grasslands. Maple habitat was estimated under warming scenarios up to 2°C. We observed a lower density of maple stands in the north (7.76%), compared to the south (33.01%). Warming increased maple stands by 3.54 and 1.45% in the northernmost and southernmost regions, respectively, with the highest increases being estimated at the initial warming (+1.0°C). We conclude that maple of northern regions can benefit from local warming if precipitation does not become limiting. These changes could increase the potential for the regional maple industry and forest management.
Type de document: | Article publié dans une revue avec comité d'évaluation |
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ISSN: | 0015-749X |
Volume: | 67 |
Numéro: | 4 |
Pages: | p. 446-456 |
Version évaluée par les pairs: | Oui |
Date: | 2021 |
Identifiant unique: | 10.1093/forsci/fxab012 |
Sujets: | Sciences naturelles et génie > Sciences appliquées > Climatologie et météorologie Sciences naturelles et génie > Sciences appliquées > Foresterie et sciences du bois Sciences naturelles et génie > Sciences naturelles > Biologie et autres sciences connexes |
Département, module, service et unité de recherche: | Départements et modules > Département des sciences fondamentales Unités de recherche > Centre de recherche sur la Boréalie (CREB) |
Mots-clés: | Acer saccharum, Acer rubrum, climate change, adaptation, site-suitability |
Déposé le: | 05 juin 2023 13:05 |
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Dernière modification: | 05 juin 2023 13:05 |
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