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Road traffic mortality in Iran : longitudinal trend and seasonal analysis, March 2011-February 2020

Delavary Milad, Kalantari Amir Hossein, Mohammadzadeh Moghaddam Abolfazl, Fakoor Vahid, Lavallière Martin et Wilhelm Siebert Felix. (2023). Road traffic mortality in Iran : longitudinal trend and seasonal analysis, March 2011-February 2020. International Journal of Injury Control and Safety Promotion,

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URL officielle: http://dx.doi.org/doi:10.1080/17457300.2023.227223...

Résumé

Road traffic mortalities (RTMs) and injuries are among the leading causes of human fatalities worldwide, particularly in low-and middle-income countries like Iran. Using an interrupted time series analysis, we investigated three interventional points (two government-mandated fuel price increases and increased traffic ticket fines) for their potential relation to RTMs. Our findings showed that while the overall trend of RTMs was decreasing during the study period, multiple individual provinces showed smaller reductions in RTMs. We also found that both waves of government-mandated fuel price increases coincided with decreases in RTMs. However, the second wave coincided with RTM decreases in a smaller number of provinces than the first wave suggesting that the same type of intervention may not be as effective when repeated. Also, increased traffic ticket fines were only effective in a small number of provinces. Potential reasons and solutions for the findings are discussed in light of Iran’s Road Safety Strategic Plan.

Type de document:Article publié dans une revue avec comité d'évaluation
ISSN:1745-7300
Version évaluée par les pairs:Oui
Date:20 Octobre 2023
Nombre de pages:12
Identifiant unique:10.1080/17457300.2023.2272239
Sujets:Sciences naturelles et génie > Génie > Génie civil
Sciences de la santé
Département, module, service et unité de recherche:Départements et modules > Département des sciences de la santé > Programmes d'études en kinésiologie
Mots-clés:road traffic fatalities, interrupted time series analysis, change point detection, SARIMA, road safety policy
Déposé le:19 nov. 2023 20:01
Dernière modification:19 nov. 2023 20:01
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