Constellation, le dépôt institutionnel de l'Université du Québec à Chicoutimi

Résumé

Over recent years, seismic losses are increasing dramatically in terms of magnitude and frequency, thereby causing severe impacts on societies and economies. The increment in seismic losses is mainly due to the rapid growth of exposure and population in earthquake-prone areas worldwide. This phenomenon necessitates better understanding and accurate prediction of potential seismic risks to plan appropriate emergency response, rescue and recovery activities. The focus of the research community has shifted towards the prediction of the seismic risk, which paved way to the development of a number of modelling software. This paper presents a critical review of existing methods for seismic risk analysis and software developed by various organisations with an emphasis on their strength and limitations. First, the focus is on the essential assessment steps in seismic risk analysis, namely, hazard, exposure model and vulnerability assessment. Particular attention is paid to different approaches applied for vulnerability evaluation. The main advantages and disadvantages of each software are highlighted. Finally, a comparative analysis of major seismic risk software, such as HAZUS, Ergo, SELENA, OpenQuake and ER2, is provided. Findings of this review indicate unresolved issues in scenario loss modelling and probabilistic seismic risk assessment, such as the convergence problem in probabilistic seismic hazard analysis, selection of suitable ground motion prediction equation and consideration of epistemic uncertainty, which need to be further investigated and applied to future seismic risk assessments.